In his October briefing, when Obama's decision on extra troops was still uncertain, Paul Rogers said if it went in favour of a McChrystal surge:
“It is therefore possible that US policy will move in the direction of bypassing Karzai and working more consistently with local and provincial administrations. If this were to be emulated by other ISAF contingents, and if foreign development assistance was to be substantially increased, along with a greater willingness to engage with some insurgent actors, then the beginnings of a new approach might start to emerge. If not, then a war of many years duration remains likely.”
Well; now we have the surge.
- Paul Rogers, "The Afghanistan decision" in International Security Monthly Briefing 2009. 08(6). Available from: http://oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/monthly_briefings/afghanistan_decision.
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